Syria's Recovery Is Fragile — and the Regional War Is Making It Worse

UN Envoy Warns Security Council That Escalation Threatens Syria's Political Transition Just as Progress Begins

Syria is at a turning point — but it is a precarious one. Fifteen years after the revolution began, the country is navigating a political transition, rebuilding shattered institutions, and taking its first tentative steps toward economic recovery. Yet all of it, a senior UN official warned the Security Council this week, could be undone by the widening regional conflict unfolding on Syria's doorstep.

"Syria's steady but fragile recovery — political, institutional, and economic — could be undermined by the impact of a prolonged regional conflict," the UN's Special Envoy for Syria told council members. "Let us redouble efforts to support Syria in shielding itself from this conflict."

The regional escalation is not staying neatly within borders. The envoy described a series of incidents inside Syrian territory: debris from intercepted Iranian missiles and drones crashing into Syrian airspace and causing civilian casualties, shelling from Lebanon attributed to Hezbollah, and a marked increase in Israeli helicopter and drone operations over Syrian territory. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have also claimed both Lebanese and Syrian lives.

The human toll has already produced a new displacement crisis. Approximately 140,000 people — mostly Syrians — have crossed back into Syria from Lebanon seeking safety.

The envoy called on Israel to fully respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, adhere to the terms of the 1974 disengagement agreement, and "refrain from any actions that could undermine Syria's stability and political transition." He also commended the Syrian government for actively engaging with regional and international partners to ensure Syrian territory is not used in ways that could widen the conflict further.

Against this backdrop, Syria's domestic political process is moving forward, albeit cautiously. Direct elections for four vacant seats in Raqqa governorate took place the day before the briefing, with voting for an additional 11 seats in Hasakeh governorate and the district of Ain al-Arab — also known as Kobani — expected in the coming weeks.

Those elections are to be followed by the announcement of 70 presidential appointees and the opening session of a new People's Assembly — steps laid out in a constitutional declaration setting a five-year political transition culminating in a permanent constitution and new elections by 2030.

The envoy underlined the importance of meaningful representation for Syria's diverse regions and communities, particularly women, in that assembly — given its role in shaping legislation and potentially a permanent constitution. He described the constitution as something that "must be a cornerstone of an inclusive nation, with checks and balances and respect for human rights."

One of the most closely watched developments in Syria's transition is the work of the newly established National Commission for Transitional Justice, which the envoy visited during his recent trip to Damascus. He described the commission as notably active in its first six months and said the UN has offered concrete support.

Progress, he noted, will require close coordination with the ministries of justice and interior, legislative reforms to strengthen the justice system, and genuine engagement with civil society and victims. The Independent International Commission of Inquiry, which released its latest report last week, identified both persistent concerns and positive steps — including what the envoy described as a constructive response from the Syrian government.

A prisoners exchange on February 26th also marked a modest confidence-building step: 61 persons were released by the Syrian government and 25 by local forces loyal to Sheikh al-Jabal. But unresolved issues in Ain al-Arab remain, and the envoy stressed that further steps are essential to advancing the political and military arrangements outlined in the September 2025 Syria road map.

He also noted the release of a report by the Syrian National Investigation Committee into the July 2025 violence in Sweida, saying he looks forward to studying its findings. "Ensuring accountability and redress for victims will be extremely important," he said.

Integration between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is advancing on the basis of a January 29th agreement. The envoy cited several positive developments: the appointment of an SDF-nominated assistant minister of defense, the release of detainees from both sides, and the beginning of returns to Ain al-Arab and surrounding areas.

Yet key questions remain unresolved — among them, the modalities for integrating SDF forces into the Syrian army and police, the future role of the Women's Protection Units (YPJ), the incorporation of civil employees into state institutions, and the status of Kurdish-language education.

These are not marginal issues. How they are resolved will go a long way toward determining whether Syria's transition is genuinely inclusive or whether it papers over the country's deep fractures.

The envoy also flagged a concerning trend: renewed calls by ISIS for violence and a rise in attacks against Syrian government forces in Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and surrounding areas. While described as small-scale and geographically dispersed, the attacks signal the group's continued intent to rebuild.

The closure of Al-Hol camp — for years one of the most dangerous displacement sites in the world, housing tens of thousands of people with suspected ties to ISIS — has added a new layer of complexity. Most of its inhabitants, mainly women and children including both Syrians and third-country nationals, have fled and dispersed across Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and Idlib. Some have left Syria entirely. Those who remained were transferred to Akbarhan camp in Aleppo, where UNHCR has registered 731 families.

Al-Roj camp, where over 2,000 third-country nationals are held, remains under SDF control. The envoy warned that beyond security concerns, these developments raise significant protection and integration challenges — and that failing to meet them risks fueling further radicalization.

Perhaps the most quietly encouraging development the envoy reported was economic. An IMF delegation that visited Damascus in February found early indications that economic activity may be improving, supported by increasing electricity provision, the return of refugees, growing investment, and Syria's gradual reintegration into regional economic networks. The Syrian central bank has also reactivated its account at the Federal Reserve in New York — a symbolic but meaningful step.

But the envoy was careful not to overstate the progress. The regional conflict has already forced Syrian authorities to reduce electricity supply, and cross-border trade has been negatively impacted. The Syrian central bank governor told him directly that the slow pace of reintegration into the international financial system is "a threat to Syria's recovery and stability."

Despite the lifting of most sectoral sanctions, ordinary Syrians have yet to feel the benefits. The envoy called for the continued easing of remaining restrictions, an urgent effort to address financial overcompliance — the tendency of banks and businesses to apply sanctions far more broadly than required out of caution — and sustained support from both public and private international partners.

The UN's Syria office is in active discussions with the Syrian government about areas of future cooperation, and the envoy expressed hope that the mission will soon be able to relocate to Damascus — a move that would signal a new phase of engagement.

He closed with a reminder of what is ultimately at stake: not just Syria's recovery, but the aspirations that drove the 2011 revolution in the first place.

"The success of Syria's transition will depend on the ability of Syrians themselves to shape a future grounded in sovereignty, accountability, and inclusion."

This article is adapted from a briefing delivered to the United Nations Security Council by the UN Special Envoy for Syria.

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