Yemen: The South at the Crossroads of Power

By: Khaled A. BaRahma

Southern Yemen has a long history of being overlooked until it suddenly becomes impossible to ignore.

For years, attention drifted between ceasefires, humanitarian appeals, and diplomatic fatigue. Yet once

again, air strikes, naval movements, and international statements have pushed the region back into the

global spotlight. What is unfolding is not a sudden eruption, nor is it the result of one isolated decision.

It is the outcome of layered pressures, shifting power balances, and changing calculations by regional

and global actors.

This analysis is written from a neutral position. It does not advocate for any side. Its purpose is to

explain why southern Yemen has re emerged as a focal point of military action, how the Houthi

movement fits into this moment, how Iran current situation shapes the conflict, and how the return of

Donald Trump to the White House has influenced the strategic environment.

Yemen Beyond the Civil War Narrative

Yemen is often described as a civil war. That description no longer captures reality. Over time, the

conflict has evolved into a fragmented landscape where local struggles intersect with regional rivalries

and global security concerns. Authority is divided. Loyalties are fluid. Control is rarely absolute. The

south, in particular, reflects this complexity more clearly than any other part of the country.

Southern Yemen has its own political memory. It was once a separate state, with institutions and

identities distinct from the north. Even after unification, those differences never fully disappeared.

When central authority collapsed, the south did not fall under one dominant force. Instead, it became a

mosaic of militias, local authorities, foreign interests, and unresolved aspirations. This fragmentation

makes the south strategically valuable and inherently unstable. It is not just a battlefield. It is a pressure

point.

Why Southern Yemen Matters Now

The renewed focus on southern Yemen is driven primarily by geography. The southern coastline sits

near some of the most sensitive maritime routes on the planet. The waters connecting the Red Sea to

the Indian Ocean are essential for global trade, energy transport, and supply chains that support

economies far removed from Yemen itself. Even the perception of instability in this area is enough to

trigger economic and political reactions.

Southern Yemen does not need to be fully controlled to shape events. Influence, visibility, and

proximity are enough. A drone launch, a missile threat, or a disruption near these waters carries

consequences that extend far beyond the country borders. Timing also matters. Global

trade remains fragile. Energy markets are alert to risk. Governments are less tolerant of disruptions that

can ripple through already strained systems. In this context, southern Yemen represents a vulnerability

that international actors feel compelled to manage.

The Houthis and the Expansion of Relevance

The Houthi movement did not begin as a regional actor. It emerged from local grievances, political

marginalization, and conflict within Yemen northern highlands. Over time, survival reshaped the

movement. Military pressure forced adaptation. Isolation encouraged alliances. Success on the

battlefield created confidence.

Today, the Houthis are perceived differently than they were a decade ago. They are no longer viewed

only as a Yemeni faction. They are seen as a group capable of affecting regional security, particularly

through asymmetric means.

Their relevance does not come from controlling southern Yemen. It comes from their ability to

influence events near strategic waterways and to generate international responses. Attention itself has

become a form of leverage. This is what gives the Houthis what can be described as strategic credit.

By demonstrating reach and persistence, they force themselves into conversations where they were

once excluded. This visibility strengthens their negotiating position while also increasing the intensity

of military responses aimed at containing them.

Trump Return and the Shift in American Posture

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has reshaped how the United States approaches Yemen

and the wider region. While earlier rhetoric emphasized reducing foreign entanglements, policy

decisions during his current administration have leaned toward deterrence, force projection, and the

protection of strategic interests. Yemen is not treated as a nation building challenge. It is treated as a

security risk.

Under this framework, the Houthis are viewed less as a local actor and more as part of a broader

regional challenge. Their actions near key maritime routes are interpreted as direct threats to

international commerce and U.S. credibility.

This perspective explains the renewed reliance on air strikes and naval deployments. The objective is

not to resolve Yemen internal conflict. It is to impose boundaries, disrupt capabilities, and send clear

signals without committing to a prolonged ground presence. Southern Yemen fits this logic. It is a

space where military pressure can be applied with limited political exposure while addressing

perceived risks to trade and navigation.

Why Air Strikes Continue

Air strikes are used not as a solution but as a management tool. From the perspective of external

powers, air power offers speed and distance. It allows intervention without occupation and visibility

without long term commitment. Targets are selected based on capability rather than territorial control.

Yet this approach has limitations. In fragmented environments like southern Yemen, air strikes rarely

dismantle networks completely. They can delay operations, disrupt logistics, and alter behavior, but

they also risk reinforcing narratives of resistance and deepening local resentment.

Civilian harm, whether acknowledged or denied, remains a persistent concern. Each strike carries

political and humanitarian consequences that extend beyond its immediate military effect. In strategic

terms, air strikes reduce short term risk while increasing long term uncertainty.

Iran’s Current Situation and Its Impact

Iran internal situation has become an increasingly important variable in this equation. Economic

pressure, currency instability, and social unrest have placed Tehran under sustained strain. Domestic

priorities now compete directly with regional ambitions. This has forced Iranian decision makers to

reassess how resources are allocated and how far external commitments can be sustained.

Iran relationship with the Houthis has always been complex. It has combined ideological alignment,

strategic interest, and practical cooperation. It has never been a simple command structure. However,

Iran challenges inevitably affect the scope and consistency of its regional engagement. For the Houthis,

this creates both risk and opportunity. Reduced external support would require greater self reliance and

caution. At the same time, uncertainty in Iran posture may push the movement to assert greater

independence and emphasize its local legitimacy.

Recent Houthi messaging reflects this balancing act. The movement continues to align itself with

broader regional narratives while also highlighting Yemeni sovereignty and self determination. This

suggests a strategy of hedging rather than dependence.

Iran inward focus may limit its ability to escalate through partners, but it does not eliminate the

strategic value of those relationships. Yemen remains a tool of leverage even if direct involvement is

constrained.

Regional Dynamics and Indirect Confrontation

Southern Yemen exists within a wider regional context defined by indirect confrontation rather than

direct war. For Iran, influence through allied groups offers strategic depth. For the United States,

protecting trade routes and maintaining deterrence remain core priorities. For Gulf states, stability and

economic transformation have taken precedence over prolonged conflict.

This convergence of recalibrated priorities leaves Yemen in a gray zone. It is no longer the central

theater of regional rivalry, yet it remains a space where signals are sent and limits are tested. Southern

Yemen, with its ports and coastline, is where these competing interests intersect most visibly.

Managing Risk Instead of Solving Conflict

Viewed through a risk management lens, current policies focus on containment rather than

resolution. Shipping risks are addressed through patrols and strikes. Political risks are managed through

diplomacy and signaling. Strategic risks, however, remain unresolved.

As long as Yemen political fragmentation persists, the conditions that allow external actors to intervene

will remain. Managing symptoms without addressing root causes creates cycles of attention, escalation,

and pause. In this sense, southern Yemen risks becoming a permanently managed crisis rather than a

conflict moving toward closure.

What Lies Ahead

The most likely future is neither peace nor full scale war. Low intensity pressure will likely continue.

The Houthis will test boundaries without crossing thresholds that trigger overwhelming retaliation.

External powers will respond selectively, seeking to protect interests while avoiding deeper

entanglement.

A comprehensive political settlement remains possible but distant. It would require sustained

engagement, regional compromise, and international coordination that currently appear out of reach.

Conclusion

Southern Yemen renewed prominence is not the result of sudden change on the ground. It reflects

broader shifts in global politics, regional recalculations, and strategic anxiety around trade and

security. Under Trump current administration, U.S. policy emphasizes deterrence and control of

strategic chokepoints. Iran internal pressures reshape how influence is exercised abroad. The Houthis,

through adaptation and persistence, have positioned themselves as actors who cannot be ignored.

From a neutral analytical perspective, this dynamic reveals a deeper truth. Yemen today is not viewed

solely as a humanitarian tragedy or a domestic conflict. It is seen as a strategic space where local

instability intersects with global systems. Until those systems are addressed alongside Yemen internal

divisions, southern Yemen will remain vulnerable to cycles of air strikes, attention, and unresolved

tension.

---